Post by LeePost by John FereiraThe figures that you quote do not take into account anyone that got
married prior to or during the time span that remained married. The
percentage figures only compare the number of divorces vs. marriages
which occurred during the same year.
Never in the history of US Divorce statistics, has the collection of
the data met with your requirements for validity.
That this has never been done leads me to believe that your criteria is
unreasonable.
In 1920, the collected divorce numbers did not vet for the year of
marriage cohort, and they don't now.
This stricture is imposed by the methodology that the government uses
to collect and disseminate the data.
It *would* be a simply matter to perform a survey of 10,000 married US
adults, correct for the year of marriage, duration of marriage, age at
marriage and age at divorce, frequency and occurrence of divorce, but
no one has ever done such a study.
Really? Try this link on for size. It was pretty easy to find. I just
went to the Census.gov web site and entered "What is the divorce rate" in
the ask box.
http://www.census.gov/prod/2005pubs/p70-97.pdf
"In 2001, marital history data were
collected from men and women
15 years and older in approximately
30,000 households. In the sample,
56,574 people were asked
questions about the number of
times they had been married, and
the month and year of marital
events (including marriage,
divorce, widowhood, and the date
of last separation, if divorced) for
the first, second, and most recent
marriage. Since less than 1 percent
of adults have been married
four or more times, few events are
missed by using this approach."
Post by LeeSo they don't do the study, and skeptics such as yourself will forever
be able to claim that one cannot know the 'true divorce rate'.
Perhaps they are using you to carry their water. This ommission is too
convenient.
Post by John FereiraThe marriage rate (number of marriages per 1000 people) has dropped
significantly since 1970.
The number of marriages per 1,000 population has dropped since 1985.
The number of marriages per 1,000 unmarried women 15 and older has
dropped since 1969.
The number of marriages per 1,000 unmarried women age 15-44 has dropped
since 1969.
Every measure of marriage rates show a decline that is constant,
long-term and unending.
Post by John FereiraEven if the number of
divorces remained consistant the percentage of divorces to marriages
would increase simply because fewer people are getting married.
There has been a rise in divorces at the same time that marriages
dropped.
Thus the occurrences of Divorce per occurrences of Marriage would
increase, which they have.
Thanks for proving my point. Because the number of marriages per 1000 people
has decreased, the perceived high divorce rate isn't as rampant as you'd
like us to believe.
The article I cited also contradicts your claim that the divorce rate is
increasing:
"Data from the National
Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
indicate that the divorce rate for
married women increased sharply
between 1970 and 1975, a period
when divorce laws were changing.
However, subsequent estimates
indicate that the divorce rate per
1,000 married women leveled off
at about 20 per 1,000 women in
the late-1970s and has stayed at
about that level through the mid-
1990s.4"
Post by LeeThus the chances that a Marriage will end in Divorce increase, which
they have.
Lastly, there were fewer marriages prior to 1960 than post 1969.
Prior to 1960 there were approximately 1.5 million marriages per year.
This number had remained more or less the same for 25 years. Then a
spike from 1963 to 1974, and another spike from 1978 to 1986.
So using your 'logic' this smaller number of older marriages might by
skewing the current divorce rates, when there were 40% fewer marriages
then compared to modern numbers. Statistically it is more likely, from
a probability standpoint, that the larger number of marriages are
represented in recent divorces.
According to the article:
"First marriages that end in divorce
last about 8 years, on average."
Given that 8 years is an average, a comparision of raw marriage and divorce
numbers for a short period to determine a percentage, and leading to a
conclusion that the number represents the divorce rate is flawed as it does
not account fo a large number of marriages which are still intact.
Look at the tables closely in the article I cited and I think you'll find
that the numbers aren't as high as you claim.
I'm not sure what you're goal is in all this. Getting married to someone is
a personal choice between two people. I was aware the the divorce rate was
relatively high when I got married but I wasn't marrying a set of
statistics. I married a person and plan on spending the rest of my life
with her. If you don't want to get married, don't, but it looks to me that
you're bending over backwards to justify why you, personally, might not be
married. I believe there's a fable about that.